Medical Experts' Agreement on Risk Assessment Based on All Possible Combinations of the COVID-19 Predictors-A Novel Approach for Public Health Screening and Surveillance

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Dec 10;19(24):16601. doi: 10.3390/ijerph192416601.

Abstract

During the initial phase of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, there was a critical need to create a valid and reliable screening and surveillance for university staff and students. Consequently, 11 medical experts participated in this cross-sectional study to judge three risk categories of either low, medium, or high, for all 1536 possible combinations of 11 key COVID-19 predictors. The independent experts' judgement on each combination was recorded via a novel dashboard-based rating method which presented combinations of these predictors in a dynamic display within Microsoft Excel. The validated instrument also incorporated an innovative algorithm-derived deduction for efficient rating tasks. The results of the study revealed an ordinal-weighted agreement coefficient of 0.81 (0.79 to 0.82, p-value < 0.001) that reached a substantial class of inferential benchmarking. Meanwhile, on average, the novel algorithm eliminated 76.0% of rating tasks by deducing risk categories based on experts' ratings for prior combinations. As a result, this study reported a valid, complete, practical, and efficient method for COVID-19 health screening via a reliable combinatorial-based experts' judgement. The new method to risk assessment may also prove applicable for wider fields of practice whenever a high-stakes decision-making relies on experts' agreement on combinations of important criteria.

Keywords: agreement; combinations; dashboard-based rating; novel method; public health screening; public health surveillance; risk assessment.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • COVID-19* / epidemiology
  • Cross-Sectional Studies
  • Humans
  • Public Health*
  • Records
  • Risk Assessment

Grants and funding

This research was funded by the Ministry of Science, Technology, and Innovation Malaysia (MOSTI), the Ministry of Plantation Industries And Commodities Malaysia (MPIC), and Universiti Sultan Zainal Abidin (UniSZA) internal fund with grant numbers UniSZA/202/PPL/MTC (008), R0270 & R0271, and the Ministry of Higher Education Malaysia (MOHE) with Fundamental Research Grant Scheme (FRGS) grant number FRGS/1/2020/ICT06/UNISZA/02/1.