Predictive neurobiological markers for prognosis are essential but underemphasized for patients with bipolar disorder (BD), a neuroprogressive disorder. Hence, we developed models for predicting symptom and functioning changes. Sixty-one patients with BD were recruited and assessed using the Young Mania Rating Scale (YMRS), Montgomery−Åsberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS), Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS), UKU Side Effect Rating Scale (UKU), Personal and Social Performance Scale (PSP), and Global Assessment of Functioning scale both at baseline and after 1-year follow-up. The models for predicting the changes in symptom and functioning scores were trained using data on the brain morphology, functional connectivity, and cytokines collected at baseline. The correlation between the predicted and actual changes in the YMRS, MADRS, PANSS, and UKU scores was higher than 0.86 (q < 0.05). Connections from subcortical and cerebellar regions were considered for predicting the changes in the YMRS, MADRS, and UKU scores. Moreover, connections of the motor network were considered for predicting the changes in the YMRS and MADRS scores. The neurobiological markers for predicting treatment-response symptoms and functioning changes were consistent with the neuropathology of BD and with the differences found between treatment responders and nonresponders.
Keywords: biomarker; bipolar disorder; brain morphology; cytokine; functional connectivity; prediction.