Purpose: Pancreatic cancer (PC) has an overall 5-year survival rate of 10%. The use of neoadjuvant chemoradiation is debated in resectable disease. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of neoadjuvant chemoradiation followed by pancreaticoduodenectomy (NACRT) versus upfront pancreaticoduodenectomy and adjuvant chemotherapy (USR) in resectable PC.
Methods: A decision tree model was used to estimate the cost-effectiveness of NACRT versus USR. Values from the published literature populate the tree: costs from Medicare (FY2021) reimbursements, and morbidity and survival data for quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Patients with resectable pancreatic adenocarcinoma who qualified for resection were included. The ICER was the primary outcome. The model was validated using one-way and two-way deterministic, as well as probabilistic sensitivity analyses.
Results: The base case was modeled using a 65-year-old male. NACRT yielded 1.61 QALYs at $45,483.52 USD. USR yielded 1.47 QALYs at a discount of $6,840.96 USD. The ICER was $48,130 USD, which favors NACRT. One-way sensitivity analyses upheld these results except when ≤ 21.0% of NACRT patients proceeded to surgery and when ≤ 85.4% of NACRT patients were resectable at surgery. Two-way sensitivity analyses also favored NACRT except in cases when the proportion of resected disease after NACRT decreased. NACRT was favored in 94.3% of 100,000 random-sampling simulations.
Conclusion: It is more cost-effective to administer NACRT before surgery for patients with resectable PC. On the basis of sensitivity analyses, USR with adjuvant therapy is only favored if rates of resection and eligibility for resection after NACRT decrease. NACRT should be considered in all patients unless there is an absolute contraindication.