This study aimed to develop an apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) ratio-based prognostic model to predict the recurrence and disease-free survival (DFS) of oral tongue squamous cell carcinoma (OTSCC). A total of 188 patients with cT1-2 oral tongue squamous cell carcinoma were enrolled retrospectively. Clinical and laboratory data were extracted from medical records. The ADC values were measured at the regions of interest of the tumor and non-tumor tissues of the MRI images, and the ADC ratio was used for comparison between the patient with recurrence (n = 83 case, 44%) and patients without recurrence (n = 105 cases, 56%). Cox proportional hazards models were generated to analyze the risk factors of cancer recurrence. A nomogram was developed based on significant risk factors to predict 1-, 5- and 10-year DFS. The receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves of predictors in the multivariable Cox proportional hazards prognostic model were generated to predict the recurrence and DFS. The integrated areas under the ROC curve were calculated to evaluate discrimination of the models. The ADC ratio, tumor thickness and lymph node ratio were reliable predictors in the final prognostic model. The final model had a 71.1% sensitivity and an 81.0% specificity. ADC ratio was the strongest predictor of cancer recurrence in prognostic performance. Discrimination and calibration statistics were satisfactory with C-index above 0.7 for both model development and internal validation. The calibration curve showed that the 5- and 10-year DFS predicted by the nomogram agreed with actual observations.
Keywords: apparent diffusion coefficient; disease-free survival; prognostic model; recurrence; tongue cancer.