Risk prediction models for head and neck cancer: A rapid review

Laryngoscope Investig Otolaryngol. 2022 Nov 28;7(6):1893-1908. doi: 10.1002/lio2.982. eCollection 2022 Dec.

Abstract

Background: Cancer risk assessment models are used to support prevention and early detection. However, few models have been developed for head and neck cancer (HNC).

Methods: A rapid review of Embase and MEDLINE identified n = 3045 articles. Following dual screening, n = 14 studies were included. Quality appraisal using the PROBAST (risk of bias) instrument was conducted, and a narrative synthesis was performed to identify the best performing models in terms of risk factors and designs.

Results: Six of the 14 models were assessed as "high" quality. Of these, three had high predictive performance achieving area under curve values over 0.8 (0.87-0.89). The common features of these models were their inclusion of predictors carefully tailored to the target population/anatomical subsite and development with external validation.

Conclusions: Some existing models do possess the potential to identify and stratify those at risk of HNC but there is scope for improvement.

Keywords: head and neck cancer; review; risk; risk assessment; risk model.

Publication types

  • Review