Climate and socio-economic factors drive the spatio-temporal dynamics of HFRS in Northeastern China

Yanding Wang; Xianyu Wei; Xuyang Xiao; Wenwu Yin; Junyu He; Zhoupeng Ren; Zhiqiang Li; Meitao Yang; Shilu Tong; Yuming Guo; Wenyi Zhang; Yong Wang

doi:10.1016/j.onehlt.2022.100466

Climate and socio-economic factors drive the spatio-temporal dynamics of HFRS in Northeastern China

One Health. 2022 Nov 21:15:100466. doi: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2022.100466. eCollection 2022 Dec.

Authors

Yanding Wang^{1

2}, Xianyu Wei^{2

3}, Xuyang Xiao⁴, Wenwu Yin⁵, Junyu He^{6

7}, Zhoupeng Ren^{8

9}, Zhiqiang Li^{1

2}, Meitao Yang^{1

2}, Shilu Tong^{3

10

11

12

13}, Yuming Guo¹⁴, Wenyi Zhang^{1

2

3}, Yong Wang^{1

2

3}

Affiliations

¹ Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang, China.
² Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
³ Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China.
⁴ West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.
⁵ Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
⁶ Ocean College, Zhejiang University, Zhoushan, China.
⁷ Ocean Academy, Zhejiang University, Zhoushan, China.
⁸ Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
⁹ State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
¹⁰ Shanghai Children's Medical Center, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China.
¹¹ School of Public Health, Institute of Environment and Population Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China.
¹² Center for Global Health, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China.
¹³ School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia.
¹⁴ School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.

Abstract

Background: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) occurs widely in Northeastern China, but the mechanism and interactions of meteorological and socio-economic factors on the transmission of HFRS are still largely unknown.

Objective: We explored the effects of socioeconomic-environmental factors on the spatio-temporal variation of HFRS incidence from 2001 to 2019 in Northeastern China. Specifically, the relative importance and contribution rates (CR) of determinants of HFRS were identified by boosted regression tree and variance partitioning analysis, respectively. Structural equation models (SEMs) were used to explain the roles of climatic and socio-economic factors in the transmission of HFRS. And a negative binomial regression was used to identify the risk effect between monthly meteorological variables and HFRS with 0-6 months lags in Northeastern China.

Results: Over the past decades, the high-risk areas of HFRS were mainly concentrated in the northern and eastern areas of Northeastern China. Additionally, HFRS mainly presented a decreasing trend from 2001 to 2019 in most areas of Northeastern China, but slightly increased in the cities of Daqing, Songyuan, Baicheng, and Tonghua. The temporal dynamics of the incidence of HFRS were primarily explained by the variations in population density (CR = 27.30%), climate (CR = 13.30%), and economic condition(CR = 1.90%). The spatial variations of HFRS were medicated by the climate (CR = 16.95%) and population density (CR = 9.45%) and medical health care (CR = 2.25%). The SEM models indicated that humid and warm climates were conducive to the incidence and increase of HFRS, but the improvement in education and an increase in population density reduced the transmission of HFRS.

Conclusion: Climate and population density appeared to mediate the spatio-temporal variation of HFRS in Northeastern China. These findings may provide valuable empirical evidence for the management of HFRS in endemic areas.

Keywords: Climate; HFRS; Northeastern China; Socio-economic factors; Temporal-spatial dynamics.