Differences in case-fatality-rate of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants

Jing Liu; Haozhen Wei; Daihai He

doi:10.1016/j.puhip.2022.100350

Differences in case-fatality-rate of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants

Public Health Pract (Oxf). 2023 Jun:5:100350. doi: 10.1016/j.puhip.2022.100350. Epub 2022 Dec 10.

Authors

Jing Liu¹, Haozhen Wei¹, Daihai He^{1

2}

Affiliations

¹ Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.
² Research Institute for Future Food, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.

Abstract

Objects: Variants of Severe-Acute-Respiratory-Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused tremendous impact globally. It has been widely reported that the Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant is less deadly than the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant, presumably due to immunity from vaccination and previous infection. When measuring the severity of a variant, Case-Fatality-Rate (CFR) is often estimated. The purpose of this work is to calculate the change in CFR of different variants over time from a large number of countries/regions since the start of the pandemic in 2020.

Study design: A Cross-sectional study.

Methods: We extend the comparison to all previous VOCs in 58 counties/regions. We use reported death divided by reported cases in 30-day sliding window with a two-week shift between reported death and reported cases.

Results: The drop from Delta variant to Omicron variant is substantial and the difference between subvariants of Omicron is not evident.

Conclusion: We showed that the CFR dropped over time, presumably due to vaccine-induced immune and infection induced immune. Population age structure and prevalence of comorbidity influence CFR.

Keywords: CFR; COVID-19; Delta variant; Omicron variant.