Mortality Prediction Score for Hirschsprung's Disease-Associated Enterocolitis: A Novel Mortality Prediction Model

Syed Asif Shah Harooni; G R Prasad; Gayatri Reddy Danda; Mahera Naureen

doi:10.4103/jiaps.jiaps_243_21

Mortality Prediction Score for Hirschsprung's Disease-Associated Enterocolitis: A Novel Mortality Prediction Model

J Indian Assoc Pediatr Surg. 2022 Sep-Oct;27(5):594-599. doi: 10.4103/jiaps.jiaps_243_21. Epub 2022 Sep 9.

Authors

Syed Asif Shah Harooni¹, G R Prasad², Gayatri Reddy Danda³, Mahera Naureen³

Affiliations

¹ Associate Professor in General Surgery, DCMS, Hyderabad, Telangana, India.
² Professor & HOD Surgery, DCMS, Hyderabad, Telangana, India.
³ Junior Resident in General Surgery, DCMS, Hyderabad, Telangana, India.

Abstract

Introduction: Enterocolitis associated with Hirschsprung's disease is a fatal and serious complication. Number of scoring systems are in vogue to grade the severity of Hirschsprung's disease associated with enterocolitis (HDAEC), but none of these scoring systems help predict mortality. Hence, we attempt to develop a mortality prediction model (MPM) for HDAEC.

Materials and methods: A retrospective analysis of all cases of HDAEC encountered was analyzed. We also used the parameters of Elhalaby et al. for data collection. A total number of 71 cases were analyzed with regard to mortality in relation to each parameter. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated by statistician, and based on these values, a scoring model was proposed. All those with predicted mortality were given score 2 and those who did not were given score 1.

Results: A total score of more than 16 predicted mortality, a score of <10 predicted survival, and a score between 11 and 15 predicted survival with morbidity.

Conclusion: A MPM for HDAEC is being proposed.

Keywords: Hirschsprung's disease; Hirschsprung's disease associated with enterocolitis; mortality prediction model for Hirschsprung's disease associated with enterocolitis.