Climate and land use change are key global change drivers shaping future species' distributions and abundances. Negative interactions among effects of drivers can reduce the accuracy of models aimed at predicting such distributions. Here we analyse how climate and land use affected population dynamics and demography of the Algerian mouse (Mus spretus), an open-land thermophilic Mediterranean small mammal. Change to a warmer and drier climate would facilitate the expansion of the species, whereas landscape change (forest encroachment following extensive land abandonment) would produce its retreat. We correlated abundance and demography parameters computed from captures obtained in 16 plots during a 10-years period (2008-2017; SEMICE small mammal monitoring) with climate, vegetation and land use change. Climate became warmer and dryer, and afforestation due to encroachment occurred in 81 % of plots. Expected positive effects of climate warming, derived from bioclimatic niche models, were counterbalanced by negative effects of both increasing hydric deficit and changes in vegetation and landscape structure. Abundance showed a slight but significant decline (-5 %). The species' range was more resilient to change, as shown by occupancy analyses, apparently due to strong local effects of vegetation structure on occupancy. This result highlighted that negative population trends would not necessarily produce range retractions. Simultaneously analysing both abundance trends and occupancy patterns may thus allow for deeper understanding and more accurate predictions of expected population trends in response to interacting global change drivers.
Keywords: Afforestation; Climate warming; Interacting global change drivers; Land abandonment; Occupancy analyses; Population size.
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