The risk of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant emergence in low and middle-income countries (LMICs)

Kaiming Bi; Jose Luis Herrera-Diestra; Yuan Bai; Zhanwei Du; Lin Wang; Graham Gibson; Maureen Johnson-Leon; Spencer J Fox; Lauren Ancel Meyers

doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100660

The risk of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant emergence in low and middle-income countries (LMICs)

Epidemics. 2023 Mar:42:100660. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100660. Epub 2022 Dec 7.

Authors

Kaiming Bi¹, Jose Luis Herrera-Diestra², Yuan Bai³, Zhanwei Du³, Lin Wang⁴, Graham Gibson², Maureen Johnson-Leon², Spencer J Fox², Lauren Ancel Meyers⁵

Affiliations

¹ The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, USA. Electronic address: Kaiming.bi@austin.utexas.edu.
² The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, USA.
³ WHO Collaborating Center for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China; Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health, Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China.
⁴ University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3EH, UK.
⁵ The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, USA; Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM, USA. Electronic address: laurenmeyers@austin.utexas.edu.

Abstract

We estimated the probability of undetected emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in 25 low and middle-income countries (LMICs) prior to December 5, 2021. In nine countries, the risk exceeds 50 %; in Turkey, Pakistan and the Philippines, it exceeds 99 %. Risks are generally lower in the Americas than Europe or Asia.

Keywords: Covid Importation; Emergence; LMICs; Omicron; Risk.

Publication types

Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.

MeSH terms

COVID-19*
Developing Countries
Europe
Humans
SARS-CoV-2

Supplementary concepts

SARS-CoV-2 variants

Abstract

Publication types

MeSH terms

Supplementary concepts

Grants and funding