Background: There is an evolving need to evaluate atrial fibrillation/atrial flutter (AF/AFL) mortality trends across races, sexes, geographic regions and urbanization statuses to better understand management inequalities.
Methods: This observational study utilized the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER) database. Mortality rates due to AF/AFL as underlying and contributing causes of death between 2010 and 2020 were investigated. Mortality trends due to AF/AFL as contributing causes of death for different races, sexes, census regions and urbanization statuses were analyzed using annual percentage change (APC), and Joinpoint regression analysis.
Results: Mortality from AF/AFL as the underlying cause was increasing across the US until 2016 (APC 4.8%), followed by a plateau 2016-2020 (APC 0.0 %). Conversely, the mortality rate due to AF/AFL as a contributing cause increases 2010-2020 (APC 3.3%). The mortality rate in both sexes significantly increased in almost all groups, with the largest increase seen in Non-Hispanic Black males. Rural areas had a higher mortality rate (36.9 and 22.9 per 100,000 for males and females in 2020, respectively) and higher slope of increase than urban areas in total US population. Non-Hispanic White people had greater mortality than Non-Hispanic Black people; however, Non-Hispanic Black mortality rates are increasing at a faster rate in urban areas.
Conclusion: AF/AFL as the underlying cause of death has plateaued from 2016 across the US 2010-2020; whilst AF/AFL as contributing cause of death is increasing. Significant discrepancies in mortality rates are identified between races and urbanization status.
Keywords: atrial fibrillation; geographic variations; mortality trends; racial and sex variations; underlying versus contributing cause of death.
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