Wetland emission and atmospheric sink changes explain methane growth in 2020

Nature. 2022 Dec;612(7940):477-482. doi: 10.1038/s41586-022-05447-w. Epub 2022 Dec 14.

Abstract

Atmospheric methane growth reached an exceptionally high rate of 15.1 ± 0.4 parts per billion per year in 2020 despite a probable decrease in anthropogenic methane emissions during COVID-19 lockdowns1. Here we quantify changes in methane sources and in its atmospheric sink in 2020 compared with 2019. We find that, globally, total anthropogenic emissions decreased by 1.2 ± 0.1 teragrams of methane per year (Tg CH4 yr-1), fire emissions decreased by 6.5 ± 0.1 Tg CH4 yr-1 and wetland emissions increased by 6.0 ± 2.3 Tg CH4 yr-1. Tropospheric OH concentration decreased by 1.6 ± 0.2 per cent relative to 2019, mainly as a result of lower anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions and associated lower free tropospheric ozone during pandemic lockdowns2. From atmospheric inversions, we also infer that global net emissions increased by 6.9 ± 2.1 Tg CH4 yr-1 in 2020 relative to 2019, and global methane removal from reaction with OH decreased by 7.5 ± 0.8 Tg CH4 yr-1. Therefore, we attribute the methane growth rate anomaly in 2020 relative to 2019 to lower OH sink (53 ± 10 per cent) and higher natural emissions (47 ± 16 per cent), mostly from wetlands. In line with previous findings3,4, our results imply that wetland methane emissions are sensitive to a warmer and wetter climate and could act as a positive feedback mechanism in the future. Our study also suggests that nitrogen oxide emission trends need to be taken into account when implementing the global anthropogenic methane emissions reduction pledge5.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Atmosphere* / chemistry
  • COVID-19 / epidemiology
  • Communicable Disease Control / statistics & numerical data
  • History, 21st Century
  • Human Activities / statistics & numerical data
  • Humans
  • Humidity
  • Methane* / analysis
  • Nitrogen Oxides / analysis
  • Ozone / analysis
  • Temperature
  • Time Factors
  • Wetlands*

Substances

  • Methane
  • Ozone
  • Nitrogen Oxides