Stratospheric impacts on dust transport and air pollution in West Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean

Ying Dai; Peter Hitchcock; Natalie M Mahowald; Daniela I V Domeisen; Douglas S Hamilton; Longlei Li; Beatrice Marticorena; Maria Kanakidou; Nikolaos Mihalopoulos; Adwoa Aboagye-Okyere

doi:10.1038/s41467-022-35403-1

Stratospheric impacts on dust transport and air pollution in West Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean

Nat Commun. 2022 Dec 14;13(1):7744. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-35403-1.

Authors

Ying Dai¹, Peter Hitchcock², Natalie M Mahowald¹, Daniela I V Domeisen^{3

4}, Douglas S Hamilton^{1

5}, Longlei Li¹, Beatrice Marticorena⁶, Maria Kanakidou^{7

8

9}, Nikolaos Mihalopoulos^{7

10}, Adwoa Aboagye-Okyere¹

Affiliations

¹ Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, 14853, USA.
² Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, 14853, USA. aph28@cornell.edu.
³ University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.
⁴ ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
⁵ Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Science, NC State University, Raleigh, NC, USA.
⁶ Laboratoire Interuniversitaire des Systèmes Atmosphériques, Universités Paris Est-Paris Diderot-Paris 7, UMR CNRS 7583, Créteil, France.
⁷ Environmental Chemical Processes Laboratory (ECPL), Department of Chemistry, University of Crete, Heraklion, Greece.
⁸ Center of Studies of Air quality and Climate Change, Institute for Chemical Engineering Sciences, Foundation for Research and Technology Hellas, Patras, Greece.
⁹ Excellence Chair, Institute of Environmental Physics, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany.
¹⁰ Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, Pendeli, Greece.

Abstract

Saharan dust intrusions strongly impact Atlantic and Mediterranean coastal regions. Today, most operational dust forecasts extend only 2-5 days. Here we show that on timescales of weeks to months, North African dust emission and transport are impacted by sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), which establish a negative North Atlantic Oscillation-like surface signal. Chemical transport models show a large-scale dipolar dust response to SSWs, with the burden in the Eastern Mediterranean enhanced up to 30% and a corresponding reduction in West Africa. Observations of inhalable particulate (PM₁₀) concentrations and aerosol optical depth confirm this dipole. On average, a single SSW causes 680-2460 additional premature deaths in the Eastern Mediterranean and prevents 1180-2040 premature deaths in West Africa from exposure to dust-source fine particulate (PM_2.5). Currently, SSWs are predictable 1-2 weeks in advance. Altogether, the stratosphere represents an important source of subseasonal predictability for air quality over West Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Aerosols / analysis
Africa, Northern
Air Pollutants* / adverse effects
Air Pollutants* / analysis
Air Pollution* / analysis
Dust / analysis
Environmental Monitoring
Particulate Matter / analysis

Substances

Dust
Particulate Matter
Air Pollutants
Aerosols