Deep-learning-based personalized prediction of absolute neutrophil count recovery and comparison with clinicians for validation

Abstract

Neutropenia and its complications are major adverse effects of cytotoxic chemotherapy. The time to recovery from neutropenia varies from patient to patient, and cannot be easily predicted even by experts. Therefore, we trained a deep learning model using data from 525 pediatric patients with solid tumors to predict the day when patients recover from severe neutropenia after high-dose chemotherapy. We validated the model with data from 99 patients and compared its performance to those of clinicians. The accuracy of the model at predicting the recovery day, with a 1-day error, was 76%; its performance was better than those of the specialist group (58.59%) and the resident group (32.33%). In addition, 80% of clinicians changed their initial predictions at least once after the model's prediction was conveyed to them. In total, 86 prediction changes (90.53%) improved the recovery day estimate.

Keywords: Absolute neutrophil count recovery; Artificial intelligence; Deep learning model; Neutropenia.