How much wetland we should protect or restore is not a simple question, such that conservation targets are often set according to political agendas, then standardized globally. However, given their key regulating hydrological functions, wetlands represent nature-based solutions to the anticipated, exacerbating effect of climate change on drought and flood events, which will vary at the regional scale. Here, we propose a science-based approach to establishing regional wetland restoration targets centered on their hydrological functions, using a case study on several sub-watersheds of a northern temperate basin in south-eastern Canada. We posit that restoration targets should minimally mitigate the negative effects of climate change on watershed hydrology, namely peak and low flows. We used a semi-distributed hydrological model, HYDROTEL, to perform a hydroclimatic assessment, including 47 climate projections over the 1979-2099 period, to test the effect of wetland restoration scenarios on peak and low flows. The results showed that hydrological responses to climate change varied among sub-watersheds (even at the scale of a relatively small region), and that, to mitigate these changes, increases in wetland coverage should be between 20% and up to 150%. At low restoration levels, increasing wetland coverage was more effective in attenuating floods than alleviating droughts. This study indicates that a no-net-loss policy is insufficient to maintain current hydrological cycles in the face of climate change; rather, a 'net gain' in wetland cover is needed.
Keywords: Climate change; Conservation targets; Ecosystem services; Flood and drought; Landscape management; Wetlands.
© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature.