Requirements for a maritime transition in line with the Paris Agreement

Sebastian Franz; Nicolas Campion; Sara Shapiro-Bengtsen; Rasmus Bramstoft; Dogan Keles; Marie Münster

doi:10.1016/j.isci.2022.105630

Requirements for a maritime transition in line with the Paris Agreement

iScience. 2022 Nov 18;25(12):105630. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2022.105630. eCollection 2022 Dec 22.

Authors

Sebastian Franz¹, Nicolas Campion¹, Sara Shapiro-Bengtsen¹, Rasmus Bramstoft¹, Dogan Keles¹, Marie Münster¹

Affiliation

¹ Technical University of Denmark, Department of Technology, Management and Economics, Energy Economics and Modelling, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark.

Abstract

The shipping industry is a hard-to-abate sector in today's society. Although past studies have looked at levels of carbon pricing, fuel savings, and the upscaling of green fuel availability separately, we combine these critical parameters for a green transition of the shipping industry to show what it takes to reach sectoral emissions reduction targets in line with the Paris Agreement. We utilize a least-cost optimization model drawing on data on, e.g., emissions with lifecycle elements and the costs of green fuel production. We find that reaching maritime reduction targets for a green transition requires high growth rates for green fuel availability, carbon pricing beyond 300EUR/tCO₂eq, and at least 50% in fuel demand savings compared to today's demand projection for 2050. The results show the importance of immediate climate action if maritime emissions reduction goals are to be achieved.

Keywords: Energy management; Energy modeling; Energy policy; Energy resources; Energy sustainability.