Spodoptera frugiperda, the fall armyworm, causes major damage to maize and >80 other crops worldwide. Since S. frugiperda successfully invaded China in 2018 via long-distance migration from Myanmar, it has caused major maize yield losses and posed a severe threat to maize production and food security. The biocontrol approach for S. frugiperda using natural enemies is environmentally safe and effective. Estimating the potential suitable area (PSA) for S. frugiperda and its natural enemies can provide insights for its biocontrol and management. Therefore, based on the global distribution records and bioclimatic variables, we modeled the PSA of S. frugiperda and three egg parasitoids in China using an ensemble model (EM). We found that the prediction results of the EM were more reliable than those of a single model. The PSAs of S. frugiperda and its three egg parasitoids were mainly attributed to temperature variables. The PSA of S. frugiperda was divided into migratory and overwintering areas using the mean January 10 °C isotherm from 2018 to 2022. In the overwintering area, Trichogramma chilonis had the largest PSA overlap with S. frugiperda (94.57 %), followed by Telenomus remus (68.64 %) and Trichogramma dendrolimi (67.53 %). Telenomus remus and Tr. chilonis were the most effective egg parasitoids against S. frugiperda in the overwintering area. In the migratory area, Tr. chilonis had the largest PSA overlap with S. frugiperda (91.36 %), followed by Tr. dendrolimi (81.70 %) and Te. remus (15.23 %). Trichogramma dendrolimi would be the most effective egg parasitoid against S. frugiperda in the Yangtze River Basin and northeastern China. Trichogramma chilonis was the most effective egg parasitoid against S. frugiperda in central China. Our findings indicate that the three native egg parasitoids would be "good regulators" of S. frugiperda outbreaks in China.
Keywords: Biocontrol; Egg parasitoid; Ensemble model; Potential suitable area; Spodoptera frugiperda.
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