COVID-19 mitigation measures such as curfews, lockdowns, and movement restrictions are effective in reducing the transmission of SARS-CoV-2; however, these measures can enable sexual violence. We used data from the Kenya Health Information System and different time-series approaches to model the unintended consequences of COVID-19 mitigation measures on sexual violence trends in Kenya. We found a model-dependent 73%-122% increase in reported sexual violence cases, mostly among persons 10-17 years of age, translating to 35,688 excess sexual violence cases above what would have been expected in the absence of COVID-19-related restrictions. In addition, during lockdown, the percentage of reported rape survivors receiving recommended HIV PEP decreased from 61% to 51% and STI treatment from 72% to 61%. Sexual violence mitigation measures might include establishing comprehensive national sexual violence surveillance systems, enhancing prevention efforts during school closures, and maintaining access to essential comprehensive services for all ages and sexes.
Keywords: COVID-19; Kenya; SARS; SARS-CoV-2; coronavirus; coronavirus disease; respiratory infections; severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; sexual violence; time-series analysis; trends; viruses; zoonoses.