Background: The association between alcohol intake and newly developed heart failure remains unclear. We aimed to measure the change in alcohol intake between two timepoints to evaluate the association of alcohol consumption with incident heart failure using a population-based study in Korea. Methods: Using the Korean National Health Insurance database, participants who underwent two subsequent national health examinations in 2009 and 2011 were included. Participants were classified into four groups according to total alcohol intake (none: 0 g alcohol/day; light: <15 g alcohol/day; moderate: 15−30 g alcohol/day; and heavy: ≥30 g alcohol/day), and changes in alcohol consumption between the two health exams were grouped into the following five categories: abstainers, sustainers (those who maintained their first examination drinking level), increasers, reducers, and quitters. After adjustment for age, sex, smoking status, regular exercise, socioeconomic information, and comorbidities, the Charlson Comorbidity Index, systolic blood pressure, and laboratory results, a Cox proportional hazards model was used to find the risk of newly diagnosed heart failure (according to ICD-10 code I50 from claims for the first hospitalization) as the primary endpoint. A subgroup analysis among those with a third examination was conducted to reflect further changes in alcohol consumption. Results: Among 3,842,850 subjects, 106,611 (3.0%) were diagnosed with heart failure during the mean follow-up period of 6.3 years. Increasers to a light level of drinking had a lower HF risk compared with abstainers (aHR = 0.91, 95% CI: 0.89−0.94). Those who increased their alcohol intake to a heavy level had a higher HF risk (from light to heavy (aHR = 1.19, 95% CI: 1.12−1.26) and from a moderate to heavy level (aHR = 1.13, 95% CI: 1.07−1.19). Reducing alcohol from a heavy to moderate level was associated with lower HF risk (aHR = 0.90, 95% CI: 0.86−0.95). Conclusion: This study found that light and moderate sustainers had lower incident heart failure risk compared with abstainers. Increased alcohol consumption from light to moderate to heavy was associated with a higher incident heart failure risk.
Keywords: alcohol consumption; change in drinking; cohort; heart failure.