Incidence and survival of uveal melanoma in Northern Ireland: how incomplete data can skew results in rare cancers

Eye (Lond). 2023 Aug;37(12):2454-2460. doi: 10.1038/s41433-022-02352-4. Epub 2022 Dec 9.

Abstract

Background: The majority of Northern Irish uveal melanoma (UM) patients are diagnosed in Sheffield. This study aims to present incidence and survival outcomes for UM patients from Northern Ireland (NI).

Methods: Collaborative retrospective study between Sheffield and Northern Ireland Cancer Registry (NICR). For UM cases not on both databases, outcomes and survival rates (via Kaplan-Meier analysis) were compared. Anonymised NICR data were used to calculate whole-population incidence of UM for NI.

Results: In total, 161 patients from NI were diagnosed in Sheffield, 90 of which were not registered with NICR at the start of this study. Data-omissions were not consistent across patient groups, leading to significant differences between those patients registered and those not. Registered patients had an all-cause 5-year survival rate of only 68.9% compared to 92.5% of those not registered (p < 0.01) and were >17x more likely to have systemic metastases than those not registered (p < 0·001). Following rectification of data-omissions, the European age-standardised incidence rate of UM for NI was 8·6 per million.

Conclusions: This study illustrates the impact of incomplete population-wide data, serving as a real-world lesson in case-identification bias. Rare cancers are at higher risk of omission due to systemic failures as the small numbers involved are not detected by system-wide validation procedures. Following this study, data-transfer agreements between England and NI were actioned, preventing future data-omissions. We present survival and incidence data for UM in NI for the first time, showing the incidence is amongst the highest in Europe, with good survival rates.

MeSH terms

  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Melanoma* / pathology
  • Northern Ireland / epidemiology
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Uveal Neoplasms* / pathology

Supplementary concepts

  • Uveal melanoma