External validation of risk prediction scores in patients undergoing anatomic video-assisted thoracoscopic resection

Florian Ponholzer; Karol Chorazy; Caecilia Ng; Florian Kocher; Herbert Maier; Paolo Lucciarini; Dietmar Öfner; Florian Augustin

doi:10.1007/s00464-022-09786-7

External validation of risk prediction scores in patients undergoing anatomic video-assisted thoracoscopic resection

Surg Endosc. 2023 Apr;37(4):2789-2799. doi: 10.1007/s00464-022-09786-7. Epub 2022 Dec 7.

Authors

Florian Ponholzer¹, Karol Chorazy¹, Caecilia Ng¹, Florian Kocher², Herbert Maier¹, Paolo Lucciarini¹, Dietmar Öfner¹, Florian Augustin³

Affiliations

¹ Department of Visceral, Transplant and Thoracic Surgery, Center of Operative Medicine, Medical University of Innsbruck, Anichstrasse 35, 6020, Innsbruck, Austria.
² Department of Internal Medicine V: Hematology and Oncology, Medical University Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria.
³ Department of Visceral, Transplant and Thoracic Surgery, Center of Operative Medicine, Medical University of Innsbruck, Anichstrasse 35, 6020, Innsbruck, Austria. florian.augustin@i-med.ac.at.

Abstract

Background: EuroLung Risk scores were established to predict postoperative morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing anatomic lung resections. We aimed to perform an external validation of the EuroLung scores, which were calculated from data of the European Society of Thoracic Surgeons database, in our video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery cohort.

Methods: All available EuroLung scores were calculated for 718 patients scheduled for anatomic video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery resections between 2009 and 2019. Morbidity and mortality according to the definitions of the EuroLung scores were analyzed in a prospectively maintained database.

Results: Overall observed complication rate was 10.45%. Scores showed weak individual correlation (η = 0.155-0.174). The EuroLung1 app score showed the biggest area under the receiver operative characteristic (ROC) curve with 0.660. Binary logistic regression analysis showed that predicted postoperative forced expiratory volume in 1 s was associated with increased complications in both EuroLung1 and parsimonious EuroLung1 scores. Thirty-day mortality was 0.7% (predicted 1.10-1.40%) and was associated with predicted postoperative forced expiratory volume in 1 s for both EuroLung2 and parsimonious EuroLung2 scores. The EuroLung2 (2016) showed the biggest area under the ROC curve with 0.673. Only a very weak eta correlation between predicted and observed mortality was found for both aggregate EuroLung2, EuroLung2 (2016), EuroLung2 (2019), and parsimonious EuroLung2 (2016) (η = 0.025/0.015/0.011/0.009).

Conclusion: EuroLung scores help to estimate postoperative morbidity. However, even with the highest aggregate EuroLung scores possible only 50% suffer from postoperative morbidity. Although calibration of the scores was acceptable, discrimination between predicted and observed events was poor. Therefore, individual correlation between predicted and observed events is weak. Therefore, EuroLung scores may be best used to compare institutional quality of care to the European Society of Thoracic Surgeons database but should not be used to preclude patients from surgical treatment.

Keywords: EuroLung; Lung cancer; Morbidity; Mortality; Risk score; VATS.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Databases, Factual
Diagnostic Imaging
Humans
Postoperative Period
Surgeons*
Thoracic Surgery, Video-Assisted* / adverse effects