Plastic futures and their CO2 emissions

Abstract

Plastics show the strongest production growth of all bulk materials and are already responsible for 4.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions^1,2. If no new policies are implemented, we project a doubling of global plastic demand by 2050 and more than a tripling by 2100, with an almost equivalent increase in CO₂ emissions. Here we analyse three alternative CO₂ emission-mitigation pathways for the global plastics sector until 2100, covering the entire life cycle from production to waste management. Our results show that, through bio-based carbon sequestration in plastic products, a combination of biomass use and landfilling can achieve negative emissions in the long term; however, this involves continued reliance on primary feedstock. A circular economy approach without an additional bioeconomy push reduces resource consumption by 30% and achieves 10% greater emission reductions before 2050 while reducing the potential of negative emissions in the long term. A circular bioeconomy approach combining recycling with higher biomass use could ultimately turn the sector into a net carbon sink, while at the same time phasing out landfilling and reducing resource consumption. Our work improves the representation of material flows and the circular economy in global energy and emission models, and provides insight into long-term dynamics in the plastics sector.