Modelling land use/land cover (LULC) change dynamics, future prospects, and its environmental impacts based on geospatial data models and remote sensing data

Abstract

The dynamic change in land use/land cover (LULC) caused by rapid urbanization has become a major concern in Lahore, causing a variety of socioeconomic and environmental issues relating to air quality. As a result, it is important to monitor existing LULC change detection, future projection, and the increase in atmospheric pollutants in Lahore. This research work makes use of Landsat, GIOVANNI, SRTM DEM, and vector data. The four key steps of the research approach are as follows: (i) LULC classification from 2000 to 2020 using Lansat data and semi-automatic classification plugin (SCP); (ii) simulation of future prediction using Modules of Land Use Change Evaluation (MOLUSCE) prediction model; (iii) assessment of effects of land use change on air quality using GIOVANNI-NASA product; and (iv) monitoring, change detection, and result interpretation. According to the research findings, there was an increase in metropolitan areas and a decrease in vegetation, barren land, and water bodies for both historical and future projections. The findings also indicated that from 2000 to 2020, about 27.41% of the urban area expanded, with a decline of 42.13% in vegetation, 2.3% in the barren land, and 6.51% in water bodies, respectively. Between 2020 and 2040, the urban area is predicted to increase by 23.15%, while vegetation, barren land, and water bodies are expected to decrease by 28.05%, 1.8%, and 12.31%, respectively. Also, the atmospheric pollutants have been increased including NO2 (1.60%), SO2 (1.02%), CO2 (0.71%), CO (1.56%), O3 (0.15%), and CH4 (0.20%), respectively. And it is projected that by 2040, the average annual atmospheric concentration of NO2, SO2, CO2, CO, O3, and CH4 will be increased by 28.80%, 18.36%, 12.78%, 28.08%, 2.70%, and 3.60%, respectively. In addition, it was also observed that the majority of the city's urban area expansion was found in the city's eastern and southern regions. Therefore, government should focus on natural resource conservation especially vegetation cover to reduce air pollutants concentration and the LULC effect.

Keywords: Cellular automata; Digital elevation model; LULC; Landsat; MOLUSCE; SCP.