A double-diamond retrospective on modeling change in attitudes and opinions

Abstract

The five decades of results produced by analysts of the General Social Survey (GSS) have enriched our understanding of social change, but some core modeling challenges remain. This article proposes that we more fully engage in the development of targeted models of period-based attitude and opinion change, using counterfactual reasoning, as we continue to model cohort replacement. This shift is also consistent with the recent literature on age, period, and cohort analysis, which argues for attention to age varying period effects. Two outcomes are modeled to provide material for the argument: support for government spending on drug addiction and rehabilitation and the valuation of obedience as a goal for child behavioral development.

Keywords: Cohort analysis; Social change; Survey methods.