Threshold conditions for global stability of disease free state of COVID-19

Muhammad Zamir; Kamal Shah; Fawad Nadeem; Mohd Yazid Bajuri; Ali Ahmadian; Soheil Salahshour; Massimiliano Ferrara

doi:10.1016/j.rinp.2020.103784

Threshold conditions for global stability of disease free state of COVID-19

Results Phys. 2021 Feb:21:103784. doi: 10.1016/j.rinp.2020.103784. Epub 2021 Jan 6.

Authors

Muhammad Zamir¹, Kamal Shah², Fawad Nadeem¹, Mohd Yazid Bajuri³, Ali Ahmadian⁴, Soheil Salahshour⁵, Massimiliano Ferrara⁶

Affiliations

¹ Department of Mathematics, University of Science and Technology, Bannu, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.
² Department of Mathematics, University of Malakand, Chakdara, Dir(L), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.
³ Department of Orthopaedics and Traumatology, Faculty of Medicine, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia(UKM), Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
⁴ Institute of IR 4.0, The National University of Malaysia, 43600, UKM, Bangi, Malaysia.
⁵ Faculty of Engineering and Natural Sciences, Bahcesehir University, Istanbul, Turkey.
⁶ ICRIOS - The Invernizzi Centre for Research in Innovation, Organization, Strategy and Entrepreneurship, Bocconi University, Department of Management and Technology Via Sarfatti, 25 20136 Milano (MI), Italy.

Abstract

This article focus the elimination and control of the infection caused by COVID-19. Mathematical model of the disease is formulated. With help of sensitivity analysis of the reproduction number the most sensitive parameters regarding transmission of infection are found. Consequently strategies for the control of infection are proposed. Threshold condition for global stability of the disease free state is investigated. Finally, using Matlab numerical simulations are produced for validation of theocratical results.

Keywords: Basic reproduction number; Global stability; Mathematical model; Next generation matrix; Sensitivity analysis; Threshold condition.