Exploring the direct and indirect impacts of climate variability on armed conflict in South Asia

Xiaolan Xie; Mengmeng Hao; Fangyu Ding; David Helman; Jürgen Scheffran; Qian Wang; Quansheng Ge; Dong Jiang

doi:10.1016/j.isci.2022.105258

Exploring the direct and indirect impacts of climate variability on armed conflict in South Asia

iScience. 2022 Oct 19;25(11):105258. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2022.105258. eCollection 2022 Nov 18.

Authors

Xiaolan Xie^{1

2}, Mengmeng Hao^{1

2}, Fangyu Ding^{1

2}, David Helman^{3

4}, Jürgen Scheffran⁵, Qian Wang⁶, Quansheng Ge¹, Dong Jiang^{1

2

7}

Affiliations

¹ State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.
² College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China.
³ Institute of Environmental Sciences (Soil & Water), The Robert H. Smith Faculty of Agriculture, Food and Environment, The Hebrew University, Rehovot 7610001, Israel.
⁴ Advanced School for Environmental Studies, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem 91905, Israel.
⁵ Institute of Geography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, University of Hamburg, Hamburg 20144, Germany.
⁶ Centre for Tropical Medicine, Nuffield Department of Clinical Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford OX13QR, UK.
⁷ Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assessment for Resource and Environment, Ministry of Land & Resources, Beijing 100101, China.

Abstract

Although numerous studies have examined the effects of climate variability on armed conflict, the complexity of these linkages requires deeper understanding to assess the causes and effects. Here, we assembled an extensive database of armed conflict, climate, and non-climate data for South Asia. We used structural equation modeling to quantify both the direct and indirect impacts of climate variability on armed conflict. We found that precipitation impacts armed conflict via direct and indirect effects which are contradictory in sign. Temperature affects armed conflict only through a direct path, while indirect effects were insignificant. Yet, an in-depth analysis of indirect effects showed that the net impact is weak due to two strong contradictory effects offsetting each other. Our findings illustrate the complex link between climate variability and armed conflict, highlighting the importance of a detailed analysis of South Asia's underlying mechanisms at the regional scale.

Keywords: Environmental event; Global change; Political science; Sociology.