The race for space: Modelling the landward migration of coastal wetlands under sea level rise at regional scale

Abstract

Globally, sea-level rise (SLR) is a major environmental challenge for coastal ecosystems. Of particular concern are the impacts on intertidal wetlands, the loss of which would have detrimental consequences for both human and ecological communities. On the south-east Australian coast, case studies suggest that the future of intertidal wetlands will greatly depend on landward migration as surface accretion may not keep up with the predicted SLR in many estuaries. However, due to differences in geomorphological settings and land-use, estuaries vary in their capacity to accommodate lateral migration. Regional scale assessment of the lateral accommodation space is therefore critical for pre-emptive planning to conserve these valuable coastal ecosystems. In this study, we analysed wetland lateral accommodation space distribution within 110 estuaries under three SLR scenarios and three land management options on the New South Wales coast, south-east Australia. From the wetland distribution predictions, we calculated and mapped the lateral accommodation space in each estuary associated with each sea level and land use scenario. We further investigated the relationships between wetland migration capacity, intertidal hypsometry represented by elevation skewness, and estuary type within a Bayesian analysis framework. Our results showed that while a few large riverine estuaries dominated the state's total accommodation space, saline wetlands were at risk of disappearing from most intermittently closed-open estuaries if they cannot vertically accrete at the pace of SLR. These distinct responses to SLR are due to different elevation distributions. Furthermore, our assessment of land use adaptation options suggested that the promotion of landward migration without impairing other important ecosystems could be achieved by making low intensity land uses available within several riverine estuaries and barrier (open entrance) estuaries. Through identifying migration opportunities and barriers, the findings of the study could support regional scale adaptation strategies to ensure the sustainability of wetland-associated ecosystem goods and services.

Keywords: Bayesian model; Elevation skewness; Intertidal wetland migration; Mangroves; Saltmarshes; Sea level rise.