Glucose Testing in an Index Pregnancy and Outcomes in a Subsequent Pregnancy: Implications for Screening and a Novel Risk Calculator

Abstract

Objective: Our objective was to assess whether variables from an index pregnancy (PG1) can be used to guide testing for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) in a subsequent pregnancy (PG2) and to create a risk calculator for GDM in PG2.

Study design: This was a retrospective cohort study of patients delivering ≥2 singleton gestations at >24 weeks' gestation from June 2009 to December 2018, for whom results of a 1-hour glucose challenge test (GCT) were available from PG1. Univariable and multivariable analyses were performed to evaluate factors associated with GDM in PG2.

Results: In total, 4,278 patients met the inclusion criteria. Among patients with a normal 1-hour GCT (<140 mg/dL) in PG1 (n = 3,719), 3.9% were diagnosed with GDM in PG2. In multivariable analysis of this group, GDM in PG2 was associated with higher GCT in PG1 (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.05, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04-1.06), large for gestational age neonate in PG1 (aOR: 1.97, 95% CI: 1.24-3.13), and higher BMI (aOR: 1.08, 95% CI: 1.05-1.11). A novel risk calculator for GDM in PG2 was developed based on these associations. Using a risk cut-off of 15%, the calculator had a positive predictive value of 26% and a negative predictive value of 97%, with 3.2% of patients identified as "at risk". Among patients with abnormal 1-hour GCT in PG1, 38.3% (n = 214/559) had an abnormal 1-hour GCT in PG2 and 34.5% (n = 74/214) of these patients received a diagnosis of GDM.

Conclusion: A normal 1-hour GCT in an PG1 is followed by GDM in a subsequent pregnancy in only 3.9% of cases. A novel calculator supports replacing universal screening with targeted testing in subsequent pregnancies in this population. Among patients with an abnormal 1-hour GCT in PG1, nearly 40% have an abnormal 1-hour GCT in a subsequent pregnancy. Direct diagnostic testing can be considered in such patients.

Key points: · Normal GCT in a first pregnancy is associated with normal GCT in subsequent pregnancy.. · A risk calculator can target diabetes testing in a subsequent pregnancy.. · Abnormal GCT in a first pregnancy is associated with abnormal GCT in subsequent pregnancy..