Theaceae is an important family in the phylogeny of angiosperm in China, which are potentially threatened by future changes in climatic and land use conditions. Therefore, understanding and predicting the isolated and combined effects of these two global change factors on Theaceae species is crucial for biodiversity conservation. Here, we assessed the isolated and combined effects of climate and land use change on the distribution shifts of 95 Theaceae species under different future scenarios by comparing projections of three model configurations: (1) dynamics climate and constant land use variables; (2) constant climate and dynamics land use variables; and (3) dynamics climate and dynamics land use variables. We find that all the three types of models predicted range contractions for most of the 95 Theaceae species under all future scenarios. Moreover, we find that climate change has rather strong effect for most species while land use change has nonsignificant or weak effect on future species distributions, although both of these two isolated effects are highly variable across individual species. Finally, the combined effect of these two factors reveals that the land use change may amplify or buffer distribution shifts expected from climate change impact depending on species. These findings emphasize the importance of taking into account the large variability in response to land use change among Theaceae species when developing land-based conservation strategies in a changing climate.
Keywords: Theaceae species; conservation strategies; ensemble species distribution models; isolated impact; modulating effect.
© 2022 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.