Predicting mortality and morbidity in emergency general surgery patients in a Jordanian Tertiary Medical Center: a retrospective validation study of the Emergency Surgery Score (ESS)

Abstract

Objective: The Emergency Surgery Score (ESS) is a predictive tool used to assess morbidity and mortality rates in patients undergoing emergent surgery. This study explores the ESS's predictive ability and reliability in the Jordanian surgical population.

Design: A retrospective validation study.

Setting: A tertiary hospital in Jordan.

Participants: A database was created including patients who underwent emergent surgery in King Abdullah University Hospital from January 2017 to June 2021.

Primary and secondary outcome measures: Relevant preoperative, intraoperative and postoperative variables were retrospectively and systematically gathered, and the ESS was calculated for each patient accordingly. In addition, a multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to assess the correlations between the ESS and postoperative mortality and morbidity along with intensive care unit (ICU) admissions.

Results: Out of total of 1452 patients evaluated, 1322 patients were enrolled based on inclusion and exclusion criteria. The mean age of the population was 47.9 years old. 91.9% of the patients were admitted to the surgical ward through the emergency department, while the rest were referred from inpatient and outpatient facilities. The mortality and postoperative complication rates were 3.9% and 13.5%, respectively. Mortality rates increased as the ESS score gradually increased, and the ESS was evaluated as a strong predictor with a c-statistic value of 0.842 (95% CI 0.743 to 0.896). The postoperative complication and ICU admission rate also increased with reciprocal rises in the ESS. They were also evaluated as accurate predictors with a c-statistic value of 0.724 (95% CI 0.682 to 0.765) and a c-statistic value of 0.825 (95% CI 0.784 to 0.866), respectively.

Conclusion: The ESS is a robust, accurate predictor of postoperative mortality and morbidity of emergency general surgery patients. Furthermore, it is an all-important tool to enhance emergency general surgery practices, in terms of mitigating risk, quality of care measures and patient counselling.

Keywords: accident & emergency medicine; adult surgery; surgery.