Background: Non-invasive evaluation of renal fibrosis is still challenging. This study aimed to establish a nomogram based on shear wave elastography (SWE) and clinical features for the assessment of the severity of renal fibrosis in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD).
Methods: One hundred and sixty-two patients with CKD who underwent kidney biopsy and SWE examination were prospectively enrolled between April 2019 and December 2021. Patients were classified into mildly or moderately-severely impaired group based on pathology results. All patients were randomly divided into a training (n = 113) or validation cohort (n = 49). Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) algorithm was used for data dimensionality reduction and feature selection. Then, a diagnostic nomogram incorporating the selected features was constructed using multivariable logistic regression analysis. Nomogram performance was evaluated for discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility in training and validation cohorts.
Results: The established SWE nomogram, which integrated SWE value, hypertension, and estimated glomerular filtration rate, showed fine calibration and discrimination in both training (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.94; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.89-0.98) and validation cohorts (AUC = 0.84; 95% CI 0.71-0.96). Significant improvement in net reclassification and integrated discrimination indicated that the SWE value is a valuable biomarker to assess moderate-severe renal impairment. Furthermore, decision curve analysis revealed that the SWE nomogram has clinical value.
Conclusion: The proposed SWE nomogram showed favorable performance in determining individualized risk of moderate-severe renal pathological impairment in patients with CKD, which will help to facilitate clinical decision-making.
Keywords: Chronic kidney disease; Nomogram; Renal fibrosis; Shear wave elastography.
© 2022. The Author(s) under exclusive licence to Italian Society of Nephrology.