Impact assessment of crude oil mix, electricity generation mix, and vehicle technology on road freight emission reduction in China

Abstract

To achieve net zero emissions, the global transportation sector needs to reduce emissions by 90% from 2020 to 2050, and road freight has a significant potential to reduce emissions. In this context, emission reduction paths should be explored for road freight over the fuel life cycle. Based on panel data from 2015 to 2020 in China, China's version of the GREET model was established to evaluate the impact of crude oil mix, electricity mix, and vehicle technology on China's reduction in road freight emissions. The results show that the import share of China's crude oil has increased from 2015 to 2020, resulting in an increase in the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensity of ICETs in the well-to-tank (WTT) stage by 7.3% in 2020 compared with 2015. Second, the share of China's coal-fired electricity in the electricity mix decreased from 2015 to 2020, reducing the GHG emission intensity of battery electric trucks (BETs), by approximately 6.5% in 2020 compared to 2015. Third, different vehicle classes and types of BETs and fuel cell electric trucks (FCETs) have different emission reduction effects, and their potentials for energy-saving and emission reduction at various stages of the fuel life cycle are different. In addition, in a comparative study of vehicle technology, the results show that (1) for medium-duty trucks (MDTs) and heavy-duty trucks (HDTs), FCETs have lower GHG emission intensity than BETs, and replacing diesel-ICETs can significantly reduce GHG emissions from road freight; (2) for light-duty trucks (LDTs), BETs and FCETs have the highest GHG emission reduction potential; thus, improving technologies such as electricity generation, hydrogen fuel production, hydrogen fuel storage, and transportation will help to improve the emission reduction capabilities of BETs and FCETs. Therefore, policymakers should develop emission standards for road freight based on vehicle class, type, and technology.

Keywords: China; Crude oil mix; Electricity mix; GHG emissions; Road freight; Vehicle technology.