Policy impact on microplastic reduction in China: Observation and prediction using statistical model in an intensive mariculture bay

Kazi Belayet Hossain; Yan Lin; Kai Chen; Mingyu Zhang; Mengyang Liu; Wenlu Zhao; Hongwei Ke; Fengjiao Liu; Chunhui Wang; Minggang Cai

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.160075

Policy impact on microplastic reduction in China: Observation and prediction using statistical model in an intensive mariculture bay

Sci Total Environ. 2023 Feb 1;858(Pt 3):160075. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.160075. Epub 2022 Nov 11.

Authors

Kazi Belayet Hossain¹, Yan Lin², Kai Chen³, Mingyu Zhang⁴, Mengyang Liu⁵, Wenlu Zhao⁶, Hongwei Ke⁴, Fengjiao Liu⁷, Chunhui Wang⁸, Minggang Cai⁹

Affiliations

¹ Coastal and Ocean Management Institute, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China; College of Environment and Ecology, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China; State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China.
² College of Ocean and Earth Science, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China; State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China; College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Xiamen University of Technology, Xiamen 361102, China.
³ College of Environment and Ecology, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China; College of Ocean and Earth Science, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China.
⁴ College of Ocean and Earth Science, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China; State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China.
⁵ College of Ocean and Earth Science, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China; State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China; State Key Laboratory of Marine Pollution, City University of Hong Kong, 999077, Hong Kong, China.
⁶ School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou 310018, China.
⁷ College of Chemistry, Chemical Engineering & Environment, Minnan Normal University, Zhangzhou, Fujian Province, China.
⁸ College of Ocean and Earth Science, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China.
⁹ Coastal and Ocean Management Institute, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China; Key Laboratory of Marine Chemistry and Application (Xiamen University), Fujian Province University, China; College of Environment and Ecology, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China; College of Ocean and Earth Science, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China; Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory for Coastal Ecology and Environmental Studies, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China; State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China. Electronic address: mgcai@xmu.edu.cn.

PMID: 36372178
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.160075

Abstract

Plastic pollution in the environment has spurred debate among scientists, policymakers, and the general public over how industrialization and consumerism are wreaking havoc on our ecosystem, but some policies might assist to ameliorate the problem in the near future. In this study, the decision tree classifier and Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) model was used to anticipate the possible sources of microplastics and their near future state in 26 surface sediment and a sediment core, respectively in Sansha Bay, which has been criticized for its intensive mariculture applications. An inventory of microplastics in the sediment core was estimated, and it was discovered that during the previous six decades, an average of 181.95 tons of microplastics were deposited, with an average deposition (by a layer of sediment) of 179.44 tons/cm. According to the DT classifier, mariculture was the primary source of microplastics, whereas urban and industrial areas were the primary sources of POPs. The Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) model revealed a microplastic downward slope, indicating that regional and national strategies implemented might successfully reduce microplastic pollution regionally.

Keywords: China; Microplastic; Sediment core; Source analysis; Time series model.

MeSH terms

Bayes Theorem
Bays
Ecosystem
Microplastics*
Models, Statistical
Plastics*

Substances

Microplastics
Plastics