Modeling the impact of nickel recycling from batteries on nickel demand during vehicle electrification in China from 2010 to 2050

Abstract

China is promoting the production and use of electric vehicles (EVs) to achieve carbon neutrality. However, the shift will drive higher demand and tighter supply of nickel in China. We develop a stock-driven bottom-up dynamic substance flow analysis (SFA) model to simulate the demand trends of various EVs under 3 scenarios, the flow of nickel under 9 scenarios and the amount of recoverable nickel under 27 scenarios in China's EV industry from 2010 to 2050. The results indicate that China's current production capacity and primary reserves of nickel cannot meet the growing nickel demand, especially under the High EVs-LNCT scenarios, and closed-loop nickel recovery from EV batteries can effectively alleviate the demand-supply contradiction. In different scenarios, the annual recycling nickel could cover between 67.7 % and 96.6 % of the demand for EV batteries in 2050, and between 37.9 % and 58.1 % in terms of the cumulative quantity by 2050. When the low nickel battery technology is adopted and the recovery efficiency is rapidly improved, the recovered nickel would meet the demand for EV batteries to the highest degree. Therefore, sufficient attention should be paid to low-nickel battery technology and efficient recycling of spent EV batteries, which is of great significance to ensure the development of EV industry and the availability of nickel in China.

Keywords: China; Dynamic SFA model; EV batteries; Nickel; Scenario analysis.