Assessing the GHG mitigation effect of the National VI Emissions Standard for light duty vehicles in China

Abstract

Assessing the mitigation effect on greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction of the National VI Emissions Standard bears great significance in enhanced actions on climate change in China. This research established a reference scenario and National VI scenario to evaluate whether the National VI Emissions Standard could make a contribution to synergistic emission reduction. Here are the main conclusions: carbon dioxide (CO₂) was the majority GHG emissions type, accounting for around 99% of GHG emissions between 2019 and 2025 for these two scenarios; implementing the National VI Emissions Standard will not mitigate total GHG emissions from 2019 to 2025, but the National VI Emissions Standard could help mitigate methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O), not CO₂ if considering the mitigation effect from the perspective of GHG type. Based on the results and discussion, this research suggests to consider the economic and technical feasibility of incorporating carbon emissions limits into the National VII Emissions Standard while continuing the evaluation of the National VI Emissions Standard.

Keywords: Carbon emission reduction; China; National VI Emissions Standard; Policy recommendation.