Secular trends of morbidity and mortality of prostate, bladder, and kidney cancers in China, 1990 to 2019 and their predictions to 2030

Abstract

Background: Prostate, bladder and kidney cancers are common age-related genitourinary cancers. China's population is aging at an increasing rate, so predicting the morbidity and mortality of prostate, bladder, and kidney cancer in China is of great significance to provide epidemiological evidence for forward planning and implementation of national health policies.

Methods: Numbers of incidences and deaths by cancer (prostate, bladder and kidney), sex (male and female) and age groups from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study. We applied Bayesian age-period-cohort models to predict incidences and deaths to 2030. We also calculated Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and mortality rate (ASMR), their trends were quantified by estimated average percentage change (EAPC) and 95% confidence interval (CI).

Results: Predictions suggest that by 2030, there will be 315,310 prostate cancer cases, 192,390 bladder cancer cases and 126,980 kidney cancer cases. The ASIRs will increase to 25.54/100,000 for prostate cancer (EAPC: 2.88, 95% CI, 2.84, 2.93), 7.54/100,000 for bladder cancer (EAPC: 2.58, 95% CI, 2.54, 2.61) and 5.63/100,000 for kidney cancer (EAPC: 4.78, 95% CI, 4.54, 5.02). Number of deaths in 2030 will be 81,540, 61,220, and 41,940, respectively. Different ASMR changes are observed, the ASMR for prostate cancer will drop to 7.69/100,000 (EAPC: -0.29, 95% CI, -0.31, -0.27), the ASMR for bladder cancer will stabilize at 2.49/100,000 (EAPC: 0.00, 95% CI, -0.02, 0.03), the ASMR of kidney cancer will increase to 1.84/100,000 (EAPC: 3.45, 95% CI, 3.22, 3.67). From 1990 to 2030, higher numbers of cases and rates are reported among males and in the 60 plus age group, both ASIR and ASMR of bladder and kidney cancers presents progressively widening differences between both males and females and between the < 60 and the ≥ 60 age groups.

Conclusion: Morbidity and mortality of the three genitourinary cancers are predicted to increase further over the next decade. It highlights the need for timely development and implementation of optimal health policies to curb the epidemic trends.

Keywords: Bladder; Genitourinary cancer; Kidney; Morbidity; Mortality; Prediction; Prostate.