Real-Time Monitoring of the Effectiveness of Six COVID-19 Vaccines against Laboratory-Confirmed COVID-19 in Hungary in 2021 Using the Screening Method

Judit K Horváth; Tamás Ferenci; Annamária Ferenczi; Gergő Túri; Gergely Röst; Beatrix Oroszi

doi:10.3390/vaccines10111824

Real-Time Monitoring of the Effectiveness of Six COVID-19 Vaccines against Laboratory-Confirmed COVID-19 in Hungary in 2021 Using the Screening Method

Vaccines (Basel). 2022 Oct 29;10(11):1824. doi: 10.3390/vaccines10111824.

Authors

Judit K Horváth^{1

2

3}, Tamás Ferenci^{2

3

4

5}, Annamária Ferenczi^{1

2

3}, Gergő Túri^{1

2

3}, Gergely Röst^{2

3

6}, Beatrix Oroszi^{1

2

3}

Affiliations

¹ Epidemiology and Surveillance Centre, Semmelweis University, 1085 Budapest, Hungary.
² Mathematical Modelling and Epidemiology Task Force, 1085 Budapest, Hungary.
³ National Laboratory for Health Security, 6720 Szeged, Hungary.
⁴ Physiological Controls Research Center, Óbuda University, 1034 Budapest, Hungary.
⁵ Department of Statistics, Corvinus University of Budapest, 1093 Budapest, Hungary.
⁶ Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, 6720 Szeged, Hungary.

Abstract

Several studies have reported the waning effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines. This study aims to demonstrate the applicability of the screening method for estimating vaccine effectiveness (VE) in a pandemic. We report VE in Hungary, estimated with the screening method, in 2021, covering a period of Alpha and the Delta variant, including the booster dose roll-out. Hungary is in a unique position to use six different vaccines in the same population. All vaccines provided a high level of protection initially, which declined over time. While the picture is different in each age group, the waning of immunity is apparent for all vaccines, especially in the younger age groups and the Sinopharm, Sputnik-V, and AstraZeneca vaccines, which performed similarly. This is clearly reversed by booster doses, more prominent for those three vaccines, where the decline in protection is more evident. Overall, two vaccines, Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna, tend to produce the best results in all age groups, even with waning immunity considered. Using the screening method in future pandemic waves is worthwhile, especially in countries struggling with a lack of resources or when there is a need to deliver VE results within a short timeframe due to urgent decision-making.

Keywords: COVID-19; Hungary; SARS-CoV-2; screening method; surveillance; vaccine effectiveness; waning immunity.

Grants and funding

This work was completed in the National Laboratory for Health Security Hungary (RRF-2.3.1-21-2022-00006). The Mathematical Modelling and Epidemiology Task Force and the National Laboratory for Health Security were supported by National Research, Development and Innovation Office (NKFIH). G.R. was also supported by the National Research Development and Innovation Fund grants TKP2021-NVAKKP 129877 and KKP 129877.