Measuring the Impact of Future Outbreaks? A Secondary Analysis of Routinely Available Data in Spain

Jimmy Martin-Delgado; Aurora Mula; Rafael Manzanera; Jose Joaquin Mira

doi:10.3390/ijerph192113981

Measuring the Impact of Future Outbreaks? A Secondary Analysis of Routinely Available Data in Spain

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Oct 27;19(21):13981. doi: 10.3390/ijerph192113981.

Authors

Jimmy Martin-Delgado^{1

2

3}, Aurora Mula³, Rafael Manzanera⁴, Jose Joaquin Mira^{3

5

6}

Affiliations

¹ Hospital Luis Vernaza, Junta de Beneficencia de Guayaquil, Guayaquil 090306, Ecuador.
² Instituto de Investigación e Innovación en Salud Integral, Facultad de Ciencias Médicas, Universidad Católica de Santiago de Guayaquil, Guayaquil 090603, Ecuador.
³ Atenea Research Group, Foundation for the Promotion of Health and Biomedical Research, 03550 Sant Joan d'Alacant, Spain.
⁴ Health and Economics Benefits Area, MC Mutual, 08037 Barcelona, Spain.
⁵ Health Psychology Department, Miguel Hernández University, 03202 Elche, Spain.
⁶ Health District Alicante-Sant Joan, 03013 Alicante, Spain.

Abstract

Background: As of 7 January 2022, it is estimated that 5.5 million people worldwide have died from COVID-19. Although the full impact of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) on healthcare systems worldwide is still unknown, we must consider the socio-economic impact. For instance, it has resulted in an 11% decrease in the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in the European Union. We aim to provide valuable information for policymakers by analysing widely available epidemiological and socioeconomic indicators using Spanish data. Methods: Secondary analysis of routinely available data from various official data sources covering the period from 1 March 2020 to 31 March 2021. To measure the impact of COVID-19 in the population, a set of epidemiological and socioeconomic indicators were used. The interrelationships between these socioeconomic and epidemiological indicators were analysed using Pearson's correlation. Their behaviour was grouped according to their greater capacity to measure the impact of the pandemic and was compared to identify those that are more appropriate to monitor future health crises (primary outcome) using multivariate analysis of canonical correlation for estimating the correlation between indicators using different units of analysis. Results: Data from different time points were analysed. The excess of mortality was negatively correlated with the number of new companies created during the pandemic. The increase in COVID-19 cases was associated with the rise of unemployed workers. Neither GDP nor per capita debt was related to any epidemiological indicators considered in the annual analysis. The canonical models of socioeconomic and epidemiological indicators of each of the time periods analysed were statistically significant (0.80-0.91 p < 0.05). Conclusions: In conclusion, during the COVID-19 pandemic in Spain, excess mortality, incidence, lethality, and unemployment constituted the best group of indicators to measure the impact of the pandemic. These indicators, widely available, could provide valuable information to policymakers and higher management in future outbreaks.

Keywords: COVID-19; epidemiologic factors; health management; health services; socioeconomic factors.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

COVID-19* / epidemiology
Gross Domestic Product
Humans
Pandemics*
SARS-CoV-2
Spain / epidemiology

Grants and funding

This research was funded by Prometeo/2021/061 grant from the Conselleria de Innovación, Universidades, Ciencia y Sociedad Digital of Generalitat Valenciana. During this study authors J.J.M. and J.M.-D. are active members of the COST Action (19113).