Rice production affects the food security and socioeconomic status of over half the world’s population. Rice-producing countries, however, are facing population growth, reduction in rice planting area, and global change. Understanding the trends of rice production and major determinants is key to regulating rice production. We thus analyzed the trends of rice production and related determinants in China from 2001 to 2021, revealing that the annual rice production (TRP) has risen steadily (r = 0.929, p < 0.0001) in recent 20 years. TRP in 2021 was 19.9% higher than that in 2001, which was primarily achieved by the increment of middle rice production (MRP). MRP increased by 46.2% from 2000 to 2018, and grain yield per unit area (GPA) was the largest in middle rice. The enhancement of GPAs is significantly correlated with the consumption of agricultural resources and the number of released rice cultivars, but variations exist. TRP and GPA vary in different provinces; Hunan (25 ± 2 megatons) and Xinjiang (8364 ± 806 kg/hectare) show the largest values, respectively. TRP could be further increased by 13.8% by improving MRP. The results suggest that rice production in China has a large potential to be further improved through regulations.
Keywords: agricultural resources; food security; grain yield; planting area; rice cultivars.