The long-term dynamic relationship between communicable disease spread, economic prosperity, greenhouse gas emissions, and government health expenditures: preparing for COVID-19-like pandemics

Abstract

The spread of communicable diseases, such as COVID-19, has a detrimental effect on our socio-economic structure. In a dynamic log-run world, socio-economic and environmental factors interact to spread communicable diseases. We investigated the long-term interdependence of communicable disease spread, economic prosperity, greenhouse gas emissions, and government health expenditures in India's densely populated economy using a variance error correction (VEC) approach. The VEC model was validated using stationarity, cointegration, autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity, and normality tests. Our impulse response and variance decomposition analyses revealed that economic prosperity (GNI) significantly impacts the spread of communicable diseases, greenhouse gas emissions, government health expenditures, and GNI. Current health expenditures can reduce the need for future increases, and the spread of communicable diseases is detrimental to economic growth. Developing economies should prioritize economic growth and health spending to combat pandemics. Simultaneously, the adverse effects of economic prosperity on environmental degradation should be mitigated through policy incentives.

Keywords: Economy; Environment; Regression analysis; Socio-economic factor; Sustainability; Time series analysis.