Nomogram for Early Prediction of Pathological Complete Response to Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Breast Cancer Combining Both Clinicopathological and Imaging Indicators

Abstract

To construct a nomogram for early prediction of pathological complete response (pCR) in patients with breast cancer (BC) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC). A total of 257 patients with BC from the fourth hospital of Hebei Medical University were included in the study. The patients were divided into training (n = 128) and validation groups (n = 129). Variables were screened using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses, and the nomogram model was set up based on the training group. The training and validation groups were validated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration plots. The diagnostic value of the nomogram was evaluated using decision curve analysis (DCA). Indicators such as hormone receptor status, clinical TNM stage, and change rate in apparent diffusion coefficient of breast magnetic resonance imaging after two NAC cycles were used for nomogram construction. The calibration plots showed high consistency between nomogram-predicted and actual pCR probabilities in the training and validation groups. The areas under the curve of the ROC curve with discrimination ability were 0.942 and 0.921 in the training and validation groups, respectively. This showed an excellent discrimination ability of our nomogram for pCR prediction. Further, DCA showed favorable diagnostic value in our model. The nomogram may be instructive to clinicians for early prediction of pCR and helpful to adjust the treatment program on time in neoadjuvant management.

Keywords: Breast cancer; Neoadjuvant chemotherapy; Nomogram; pCR.