Background: Patients have difficult unmet needs when standard chemotherapy produces a median survival of less than 1 year or many patients will experience severe toxicities. Blood tests can predict their survival.
Methods: Analyses evaluate predictive blood tests to identify patients who often survive 1 and 2 years. A four-test model includes: albumin, absolute neutrophil count, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio, and lymphocyte-monocyte ratio. Individual tests include: alkaline phosphatase, lymphocytes, white blood count, platelet count, and hemoglobin. Eligible patients have advanced: resistant 3rd line colorectal, and both resistant and new pancreatic and intrahepatic bile duct cancers. Eligibility characteristics include: biopsy-proven, measurable metastatic disease, NCI grade 0-2 blood tests, Karnofsky Score 100-50, and any adult age. Drugs are given at 1/4-1/3 of their standard dosages biweekly: gemcitabine, irinotecan, fluorouracil, leucovorin, and day 2 oxaliplatin every 2 weeks. In case of progression, Docetaxel is added (except colon cancer), with or without Mitomycin C, and next cetuximab (except pancreatic and KRAS BRAF mutation cancers). Bevacizumab is substituted for cetuximab in case of another progression or ineligibility. Consent was written and conforms with Helsinki, IRB, and FDA criteria (FDA #119005).
Results: Median survival is 14.5 months. Of 205 patients, 60% survive 12, and 37% survive 24 months (95% CI ± 8%). Survival is > 24, 13, and 3.8 months for patients with 0, 1-2, and 3-4 unfavorable tests, respectively. Individual "favorable and unfavorable" tests predict long and short survival. Neither age nor prior therapy discernibly affects survival. Net rates of clinically significant toxicities are less than 5%.
Conclusion: Treatments reproduce predictable, greater than 12 and 24-month chances of survival for the aged and for patients with drug-resistant tumors. Evaluation of blood tests may change practice, expand eligibility, and personalize treatments. Findings support investigation of drug combinations and novel dosages to reverse resistance and improve safety.