Can infectious modelling be applicable globally - lessons from COVID 19

Dhammika N Magana-Arachchi; Rasika P Wanigatunge; Meththika S Vithanage

doi:10.1016/j.coesh.2022.100399

Can infectious modelling be applicable globally - lessons from COVID 19

Curr Opin Environ Sci Health. 2022 Oct 22:100399. doi: 10.1016/j.coesh.2022.100399. Online ahead of print.

Authors

Dhammika N Magana-Arachchi¹, Rasika P Wanigatunge², Meththika S Vithanage³

Affiliations

¹ Molecular Microbiology and Human Diseases Unit, National Institute of Fundamental Studies, Kandy, Sri Lanka.
² Department of Plant and Molecular Biology, Faculty of Science, University of Kelaniya, Sri Lanka.
³ Ecosphere Resilience Research Centre, Faculty of Applied Sciences, University of Sri Jayewardenepura, Nugegoda, Sri Lanka.

Abstract

Contagious diseases are needed to be monitored to prevent spreading within communities. Timely advice and predictions are necessary to overcome the consequences of those epidemics. Currently, emphasis has been placed on computer modelling to achieve the needed forecasts, the best example being the COVID-19 pandemic. Scientists used various models to determine how diverse sociodemographic factors correlated and influenced COVID-19 Global transmission and demonstrated the utility of computer models as tools in disease management. However, as modelling is done with assumptions with set rules, calculating uncertainty quantification is essential in infectious modelling when reporting the results and trustfully describing the limitations. This article summarizes the infectious disease modelling strategies, challenges, and global applicability by focusing on the COVID-19 pandemic.

Keywords: COVID-19; basic reproduction number; infectious diseases; infectious modelling; prediction.

Publication types

Review