A second demographic transition in Indonesia?

Ariane Utomo; Aris Ananta; Diahhadi Setyonaluri; Calvin Aryaputra

doi:10.1007/s42379-022-00115-y

A second demographic transition in Indonesia?

China Popul Dev Stud. 2022;6(3):288-315. doi: 10.1007/s42379-022-00115-y. Epub 2022 Oct 21.

Authors

Ariane Utomo¹, Aris Ananta^{2

3}, Diahhadi Setyonaluri⁴, Calvin Aryaputra²

Affiliations

¹ School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia.
² Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia, Depok City, Indonesia.
³ The Centre for Advanced Research, Universiti Brunei Darussalam, Gadong, Brunei Darussalam.
⁴ Population and Labour Studies, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia, Depok City, Indonesia.

Abstract

As a predominantly Muslim and ethnically diverse new democracy in Asia, Indonesia is a timely case to study how the contending forces of development and social change are reflected in changing norms and practices around family formation. This paper examines the extent to which the second demographic transition (SDT) theory can provide a primary framework to understand contemporary patterns of fertility, marriage and family change in Indonesia. Against the backdrop of socio-political change following Reformasi in 1998, we found emerging demographic features typically associated with societies in later stages of fertility transition. These include fertility below replacement in some regions; increasing age at first marriage, non-marriage, and divorce rates; and growing diversity in household/family forms. As the vast regions of Indonesia is economically, culturally, and demographically heterogeneous, these key features of SDT are not likely to emerge and unfold in a uniform manner. Further, these demographic shifts are taking place amidst multiple tensions and contradictions in the nature and direction of ideational change pertaining to marriage and the family. We argue that the prevailing ideational change driving the shifts in marriage, fertility, and the family within Indonesia is neither unilinear nor singular in nature. Emerging ideational change embodying individualism, secularism, and post-materialism-originally proposed in SDT theory to be the primary drivers of fertility decline in post-industrial Western Europe-can overlap with popular values promoting de-secularization and the strengthening of familial institutions. As a demographic framework, the SDT theory is an important and useful starting point. But it needs to be reevaluated by considering the complex socio-political and increasingly precarious economic terrains behind fertility transition, as well as marriage and family change in post-Reformasi Indonesia.

Keywords: Diversity; Family; Fertility; Indonesia; Islam; Marriage; Second demographic transition.