Climate change impact on photovoltaic power potential in China based on CMIP6 models

Jiayun Niu; Wenmin Qin; Lunche Wang; Ming Zhang; Jinyang Wu; Yujie Zhang

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159776

Climate change impact on photovoltaic power potential in China based on CMIP6 models

Sci Total Environ. 2023 Feb 1;858(Pt 1):159776. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159776. Epub 2022 Oct 26.

Authors

Jiayun Niu¹, Wenmin Qin², Lunche Wang³, Ming Zhang¹, Jinyang Wu¹, Yujie Zhang¹

Affiliations

¹ Hunan Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing of Ecological Environment in Dongting Lake Area, School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China; Key Laboratory of Regional Ecology and Environmental Change, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China.
² Hunan Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing of Ecological Environment in Dongting Lake Area, School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China; Key Laboratory of Regional Ecology and Environmental Change, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China. Electronic address: qinwenmin@whu.edu.cn.
³ Hunan Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing of Ecological Environment in Dongting Lake Area, School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China; Key Laboratory of Regional Ecology and Environmental Change, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China. Electronic address: wang@cug.edu.cn.

PMID: 36309276
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159776

Abstract

China has the largest worldwide cumulative installed photovoltaic (PV) capacity, which is expected to be 1300 GW in 2050. Industrial production, population explosion and fossil fuel combustion would reduce the surface solar radiation that could be received by PV panels. However, it is still a problem to explore the integrated effects of socio-economic and air pollutant emissions on PV power potential in China. In this study, climate change impact on PV power potential in 2023-2100 were assessed using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model, combining Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The validation results with ground-based surface solar radiation measurements collected from 17 China Meteorological Administration (CMA) stations showed that the Meteorological Research Institute Earth System Model version 2-0 (MRI-ESM2-0) attained a better performance with mean correlation coefficients (R), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.85, 35.80 Wm^-2 and 29.37 Wm^-2, respectively. Then, the MRI-ESM2-0 model was selected to analyze the spatial and temporal variations in PV power potential. PV power potential decreased significantly in SSP585 ranging from 192.71 Wm^-2 to 189.96 Wm^-2 in 2023-2100 corresponding to the growing resource intensity and fossil fuel dependency. In contrast, if China continues on the path of sustainable and low-carbon development and keeps temperature rise to about 1.5 °C by 2100, PV power potential will increase by 1.36-5.90 Wm^-2. Meanwhile, the effects of climatological factors on PV power potential were analyzed by Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) method. Results indicated that surface solar radiation had the highest contribution of >50 %, and the contribution of aerosols and cloud cover was about 20 %. This study is conducive to the full utilization of solar resources and has important implications for the future formulation of solar energy policy in China.

Keywords: CMIP6; China; Climate change; Photovoltaic power potential.

MeSH terms

Air Pollutants* / analysis
China
Climate Change
Fossil Fuels
Solar Energy*

Substances

Fossil Fuels
Air Pollutants