Timeliness of reporting of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence results and their utility for infectious disease surveillance

Claire Donnici; Natasha Ilincic; Christian Cao; Caseng Zhang; Gabriel Deveaux; David Clifton; David Buckeridge; Niklas Bobrovitz; Rahul K Arora

doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100645

Timeliness of reporting of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence results and their utility for infectious disease surveillance

Epidemics. 2022 Dec:41:100645. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100645. Epub 2022 Oct 20.

Authors

Claire Donnici¹, Natasha Ilincic², Christian Cao³, Caseng Zhang⁴, Gabriel Deveaux³, David Clifton⁵, David Buckeridge⁶, Niklas Bobrovitz⁷, Rahul K Arora⁸

Affiliations

¹ Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, 3330 Hospital Dr, Calgary, AB, T2N 4N1, Canada. Electronic address: claire.donnici@ucalgary.ca.
² Temerty Faculty of Medicine, University of Toronto, 27 King's College Cir, Toronto, ON, M5S 1A1, Canada.
³ Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, 3330 Hospital Dr, Calgary, AB, T2N 4N1, Canada.
⁴ Faculty of Health Sciences, McMaster University, 1280 Main St W, Hamilton, ON, L8S 4L8, Canada.
⁵ Institute of Biomedical Engineering, University of Oxford, Old Road Campus Research Building, Headington, Oxford, OX3 7DQ, UK.
⁶ Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, McGill University, 3605 Rue de la Montagne, Montreal, QC H3G 2M1, Canada.
⁷ Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, 3330 Hospital Dr, Calgary, AB, T2N 4N1, Canada; Temerty Faculty of Medicine, University of Toronto, 27 King's College Cir, Toronto, ON, M5S 1A1, Canada.
⁸ Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, 3330 Hospital Dr, Calgary, AB, T2N 4N1, Canada; Institute of Biomedical Engineering, University of Oxford, Old Road Campus Research Building, Headington, Oxford, OX3 7DQ, UK.

Abstract

Seroprevalence studies have been used throughout the COVID-19 pandemic to monitor infection and immunity. These studies are often reported in peer-reviewed journals, but the academic writing and publishing process can delay reporting and thereby public health action. Seroprevalence estimates have been reported faster in preprints and media, but with concerns about data quality. We aimed to (i) describe the timeliness of SARS-CoV-2 serosurveillance reporting by publication venue and study characteristics and (ii) identify relationships between timeliness, data validity, and representativeness to guide recommendations for serosurveillance efforts. We included seroprevalence studies published between January 1, 2020 and December 31, 2021 from the ongoing SeroTracker living systematic review. For each study, we calculated timeliness as the time elapsed between the end of sampling and the first public report. We evaluated data validity based on serological test performance and correction for sampling error, and representativeness based on the use of a representative sample frame and adequate sample coverage. We examined how timeliness varied with study characteristics, representativeness, and data validity using univariate and multivariate Cox regression. We analyzed 1844 studies. Median time to publication was 154 days (IQR 64-255), varying by publication venue (journal articles: 212 days, preprints: 101 days, institutional reports: 18 days, and media: 12 days). Multivariate analysis confirmed the relationship between timeliness and publication venue and showed that general population studies were published faster than special population or health care worker studies; there was no relationship between timeliness and study geographic scope, geographic region, representativeness, or serological test performance. Seroprevalence studies in peer-reviewed articles and preprints are published slowly, highlighting the limitations of using the academic literature to report seroprevalence during a health crisis. More timely reporting of seroprevalence estimates can improve their usefulness for surveillance, enabling more effective responses during health emergencies.

Keywords: Bibliometrics; COVID-19; Infectious disease; Public health surveillance; Reporting; Seroprevalence.

Publication types

Review
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

COVID-19* / epidemiology
Communicable Diseases*
Humans
Pandemics
SARS-CoV-2
Seroepidemiologic Studies