When will China's total water consumption reach the turning point? EKC simulation and influencing factors

Abstract

The turning point of China's total water consumption is very important for the understanding of the evolution trend of total water consumption and the formulation of water conservation policies. Based on the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) model, this paper verifies the shape of water consumption Kuznets curve. Scenario analysis and Monte Carlo simulation are combined for the first time to predict water consumption Kuznets curve. The LMDI model is used to decompose the driving factors of the evolution of total water consumption, and the STIRPAT model is expanded to explore the influence mechanism of total water consumption. The results show the following: (1) The theoretical water consumption Kuznets curve exists, and the turning point is 26,448 yuan RMB (in around 2013). (2) Based on the multiple driving factors (water intensity, per capita GDP, and population) and multiple scenarios (baseline scenario, target scenario, and 2 adjusted scenarios), 32 scenarios are designed in this paper; in the S1-S8, the turning point still appeared near 2013; the curves under the S11-S14, S16, and S25-S32 were inverted U-shaped, and the turning point was 48,728 yuan RMB (in around 2025); and in the S9, S10, and S15, the curve shows an upward trend; in the S17-S24, the curve has a rising-falling-rising characteristic. (3) Domestic effect and ecological effect both play a role in promoting the total water consumption, while the production effect is in an inverted N-shaped. Economic growth has always promoted the increase in industrial and agricultural water consumption, and the role of population size is relatively weak. The intensity of production water consumption has always promoted reduction in industrial and agricultural water consumption. Industrial water intensity and industrial structure are the primary and secondary factors that promote the decline of production intensity. (4) The per capita GDP has the largest contribution to total water consumption, followed by the water intensity, and the industrial structure has the least impact. The population has a negative impact. Based on this, a number of policy implications are obtained.

Keywords: EKC; Influence mechanism; LMDI; Scenario analysis; Total water consumption.