The upgrading of water supply services is calling for more accurate and adaptive numerical models to give insight into actual water distribution systems (WDSs), which underlines the importance of carefully calibrating model parameters. Due to unavoidable uncertainties in the calibration process such as measurement errors, errors in model parameters assumed to be known, and local-optimum of calibration algorithms, calibrated parameters could still contain non-negligible latent errors, and the calibrated model may not able to maintain its long-term accuracy when operating conditions change. To solve this problem, there is growing interest in adopting data assimilation (DA) methods to utilize more comprehensive information in long-term measurements to reduce the impact of uncertainties and maintain the accuracy and stability of calibrated models. In this study, two traditional calibration methods and four DA methods were tested and compared in two WDSs with different structures, which aims to form a general understanding of the behavior and applicability of different methods. The calibration results show that DA methods perform better than traditional methods and are more robust to different types of uncertainties, which provide an effective way to maintain the long-term accuracy of WDS models to enable better management of WDSs. Ensemble-based DA methods such as Particle Filter (PF) and Inferential-Measurement Kalman Filter (IMKF) performed well in the real-life system. They avoid linear approximation and can better estimate the impact of uncertainties to assimilate accurate correction information of the parameters. Gradient-based DA methods such as Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) and Variational Bayesian Adaptive Kalman Filter (VBAKF) have lower computational demand, but they are found to be less robust when dealing with large system uncertainties and nonlinearities.
Keywords: Data assimilation; Model uncertainty; Parameter calibration; Water distribution systems.
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