Previously, we developed a mathematical model via molecular simulation analysis to predict the infectivity of six SARS-CoV-2 variants. In this report, we aimed to predict the relative risk of the recent new variants of SARS-CoV-2 based on our previous research. We subjected Omicron BA.4/5 and BA.2.75 variants of SARS-CoV-2 to the analysis to determine the evolutionary distance of the spike protein gene (S gene) of the variants from the Wuhan variant so as to appreciate the changes in the spike protein. We performed molecular docking simulation analyses of the spike proteins with human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) to understand the docking affinities of these variants. We then compared the evolutionary distances and the docking affinities of these variants with those of the variants that we had analyzed in our previous research. As a result, BA.2.75 has both the highest docking affinity (ratio per Wuhan variant) and the longest evolutionary distance of the S gene from the Wuhan variant. These results suggest that BA.2.75 infection can spread farther than can infections of preexisting variants.
Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; docking affinity; evolutionary distance; spike protein.