Are there synergies in the decarbonization of aviation and shipping? An integrated perspective for the case of Brazil

Eduardo Müller-Casseres; Alexandre Szklo; Clarissa Fonte; Francielle Carvalho; Joana Portugal-Pereira; Luiz Bernardo Baptista; Pedro Maia; Pedro R R Rochedo; Rebecca Draeger; Roberto Schaeffer

doi:10.1016/j.isci.2022.105248

Are there synergies in the decarbonization of aviation and shipping? An integrated perspective for the case of Brazil

iScience. 2022 Sep 29;25(10):105248. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2022.105248. eCollection 2022 Oct 21.

Affiliations

¹ Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (CENERGIA), Energy Planning Program (PPE), COPPE, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Centro de Tecnologia, Bloco C, Sala 211, Cidade Universitária, Ilha do Fundão, Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro 21941-914, Brazil.
² Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London, UK.
³ IDMEC, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade De Lisboa, Av Rovisco Pais, Lisbon, Portugal.

Abstract

Aviation and shipping account for 22% of total transport-related CO₂ emissions. Low-carbon fuels (such as biofuels and e-fuels) are the most promising alternatives to deeply decarbonize air and maritime transport. A number of technological routes focused on the production of renewable jet fuel can coproduce marine fuels, emulating the economies of scope of crude oil refineries. This work aims to investigate possible synergies in the decarbonization of aviation and shipping in Brazil, selected as an interesting case study. An Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) of national scope is used to explore different combinations of sectoral and national climate targets. This IAM represents not only the energy supply and transport systems but also the agricultural and land-use systems. In the absence of a deep mitigation policy for Brazil, results indicate synergies related to oilseed- and lignocellulosic-based biofuels production routes. Imposing a strict carbon budget to the Brazilian economy compatible with a world well below 2°C, the portfolio of aviation and shipping fuels changes significantly with the need for carbon dioxide removal strategies based on bioenergy. In such a scenario, synergies between the two sectors still exist, but most renewable marine energy supply is a by-product of synthetic diesel produced for road transport, revealing a synergy different from the one originally investigated by this work.

Keywords: Energy Modelling; Energy management; Energy policy; Energy resources.